Tennessee Titans

2021 Record 12-5

Odds to win division +175

It was a tail of two halves last year for the Titans. When Derrick Henry was on the field, they were one of the best teams in the NFL. When he went down with a foot injury week eight, Tennessee turned into one of the worst teams in the league. They look to recreate what got them the number one seed last year with a fully healthy Henry.

AJ Brown got traded on draft night to the Philadelphia Eagles and his replacements are Robert Woods and rookie Treylon Burkes. Robert Woods is coming off a torn ACL and is age 30. Burkes has shown some flashes in the preseason but question marks about his health have been a concern. If anyone flashed in the preseason, it was third rounder Malik Willis. His accuracy might have some questions but his running ability has been a real threat. Ryan Tannehill will be owed big money down the road starting next year and it looks like Tennessee might be looking to move on and Willis could be the one to replace him.

Derrick Henry returns in one of the most intriguing spots for a player. No team has had an offense ran through a player like the Titans have with Henry. When he is on the field, the Titans have been a Super Bowl caliber squad. When he was gone the second half of the season due to injury, the team looks like a bottom five team. Henry is creeping up there in age for a running back and his insane volume is bound to catch up sooner rather than later. Not only that, the Titans offensive line has become one of the worst in football.

Defensively, they have been one of the more underrated units in the past few seasons. Jeffery Simmons, Denico Autry, Harold Landry, and Bud Dupree should be able to get to the quarterback. One of the best safeties in the NFL in Kevin Byard will be on the loose in the back end of the defense. Corner has been an issue and still could be if Caleb Farley, who was drafted last year and got injured, doesn’t pan out.

The Titans season should be an interesting one. I don't think they hit the twelve win mark again unless they go on an insane run. Could this end up a rebuilding year? Does Malik Willis take over if Tannehill doesn’t perform? How does Henry look returning behind a deteriorating offensive line? It’s hard to believe that they will reach what they did last year. If they don’t win the AFC South, I don’t see them being a wild card contender. Too many teams that will end up with 10+ wins competing for it.

Indianapolis Colts 

2021 Record 9-8

Odds to win division -130

The Colts move on from the horrific Carson Wentz ordeal and find a gift of franchise quarterback Matt Ryan falling into their lap from Atlanta. The pressure to finally get win the division is definitely felt after how last year ended against the Jaguars. Frank Reich and Chris Ballard are now on quarterback number five and hope to win the AFC South for the first time since 2014.

Matt Ryan will be handing the ball of to probably the best running back he has ever had in Jonathan Taylor. Michael Pittman is an ascending talent who should have a huge year three. Outside of Pittman, the wide receiver and tight end room is pretty thin. Indy hopes Paris Campbell stays healthy and rookie Alec Pierce can produce early. Mo Allie Cox will fill in for a retired Jack Doyle. I expect JT’s volume to tone down a bit since they won’t have to rely on him as much now that they have a competent quarterback. I do worry that if Michael Pittman goes down with an injury, the offense could plummet quick. 

On defense, the additions of Stephon Gilmore and Yannick Ngakoue will give new defensive coordinator Gus Bradley some guys to work with. Shaquille Leonard not practicing is a worry since he is the leader of the defense. The defensive line has underperformed even with the amount of resources the Colts have poured into it. The Colts hope the group of Buckner, Paye, Stewart, and Ngakoue can finally get the pressure this zone defense needs. Julian Blackmon and rookie Nick Cross look to handle the safety duties. Stefon Gilmore and Kenny Moore look like a pretty good cornerback group if Gilmore can stay healthy.

On paper, this team looks pretty good overall. The upgrade at quarterback even with an older Matt Ryan should help the offense tremendously. Like I said, I do worry about the depth at wide receiver if something happens to Pittman. The defense has talent across the board and looks like the best one they have had in awhile. There seems to be a small window for the Colts to capitalize on not only Matt Ryan’s end of the career but also before they have to pay Taylor, Pittman, and Nelson. With how the rest of the division has played out so far, the Colts are my pick to win the AFC South(finally) and should be a darkhorse in a tough AFC. The question is that if they reach the postseason this year, can Matt Ryan compete with the likes of Mahomes, Allen, Herbert, and Burrow? He is a former MVP after all but on the back end of his career. They will have to win the AFC South to find out.

Houston Texans

2021 Record 4-13

Odds to win division +3000

Davis Mills showed some flashes late in 2021 to entertain the idea of him being the quarterback of the future. The Texans finally look clear of the Deshaun Watson saga and should be fully focused on the rebuild in Houston.

Brandin Cooks will be General Mills’ go-to at wide receiver once again. Nico Collins will be the WR2 now that rookie John Metchie will be out for the year following a cancer diagnosis. At running back, rookie Dameon Pierce has turned heads and looks to be taking over the RB1 role with Rex Burkhead and Marlon Mack as the supporting cast. The offense isn’t scary by any means but the Texans are looking to see if Davis Mills will be the quarterback of the future. There shouldn’t be too many expectations from the offense.

They spent their first round draft pick on cornerback Derek Stingley to try and solidify Lovie Smith’s back end of the defense. They added even more cornerbacks throughout the draft including second round pick Jalen Pitre from Baylor to fix a big problem for them in 2021, which was the secondary. 

It’s yet to be determined how Lovie Smith in his first year as head coach for Houston will do. The team is in a total rebuild and doesn’t have a whole lot of talent to work with. Dameon Pierce and Davis Mills look to be good draft picks so far but how far they will take the offense is yet to be determined. The defense needs a lot of work but they do have the benefit of having a softer schedule this year. The Texans might improve by a game or two but I don’t feel good about the Texans making any huge strides this year. 

Jacksonville Jaguars

2021 Record 3-14

Odds to win division +750

Well...it couldn’t get any worse than it did last year with notable clown Urban Meyer. Doug Pederson comes in as head coach and hopes to fix the problems Meyer left. 

Trevor Lawrence looks to rebound after a 2021 season that was doomed to fail from the get go. One of the highest ranked prospects since Andrew Luck goes into year two with a new WR1 in Christian Kirk. The Jaguars paid a hefty amount to bring him in along with Evan Engram to give Lawrence some receivers to work with. Travis Ettiene will be fully healthy and should be a weapon coming out of the backfield for his former college teammate Trevor Lawrence. I have full belief that Lawrence will make a big leap in 2022.

Defensively, it should improve and a big part of that is adding number one overall pick Travyon Walker to the defensive line and have him play on the opposite side of Josh Allen. The Jaguars spent a ton of money in the offseason and used a lot of that on the defensive side of the ball. Linebacker Foye Oluokum, cornerback Darious Williams, and defensive tackle Foley Fatukasi should all be starters day one. Along with Travyon Walker, Jacksonville drafted linebackers Devin Lloyd and Chad Mumu with their other first and third round pick. 

Until we see it on the field, it isn’t a guarantee the team will improve but the signs are there for Jacksonville to take the next leap. It wouldn’t surprise me if Trevor Lawrence and the Jags opened some eyes this year. It’ll be hard for them to be a playoff contender in the AFC but hovering around .500 isn’t out of the picture. I am optimistic this year for Jacksonville and Trevor Lawrence’s growth in year two. 

Division Winner: Indianapolis Colts

Tennessee Titans

Jacksonville Jaguars

Houston Texans