Kansas City Chiefs

2021 Record 12-5

Odds to win division +175

The Chiefs were close to going back to the Super Bowl for the third time in four years after a tough defeat in the AFC Championship. Kansas City is starting to have to work around Patrick Mahomes’ huge contract and did some retooling this offseason on both sides of the ball.

Tyreek Hill was traded to Miami and replaced with a few different types of receivers. JuJu Smith-Schuster comes over from Pittsburgh and Marquez Valdes-Scantling got signed this offseason after spending last year with Green Bay. The Chiefs took rookie receiver Skyy Moore in the second round of this years draft. It looks like Juju will be the main beneficiary of the lost targets but don’t rule out deep threat MVS to have some huge games as well. There is more depth at receiver this year but it’ll be hard to replace what Tyreek did. At running back, Clyde Edwards Helair returns and the list behind him looks pretty thin with Jerrick McKinnon, Ronald Jones, and rookie Isaiah Pacheco. Travis Kelce will still get his workload but there are a lot of unknowns surrounding the rest of the offense. I still expect the offense to be a good one with one of the best offensive lines in the league along with the best quarterback and head coach duo in football.

The defense, however, is pretty suspect at best and has been completely overhauled this offseason. Tyrann Mathieu left for his home state of New Orleans and pass rusher Melvin Ingram went to Miami. The Chiefs went with defense for their first two picks in the draft this year. Drafting both cornerback Trent McDuffey and defensive end George Karlaftis. Both have seemed to do well in training camp and preseason so far but it is hard to expect them to be pro bowlers right out of the gate. With the amount of turnover this offseason for a defense that was middle of the road at best, things could be shaky to start out in 2022. The tough stretch to begin the year doesn’t help the matter either.

The Chiefs will play the number one hardest schedule in the NFL this upcoming year. With the key losses of Tyreek Hill and Tyrann Matheiu, Kansas City will have to learn to win without them fast and find a way to keep up in a brutal AFC West. With how loaded the entire AFC is, the Chiefs could win 10-11 games and still miss the playoffs when it comes down to tiebreakers and division wins. I still think the Chiefs will be a good team this year and could make the playoffs, but it just seems like the deck is stacked against Kansas City to repeat what they did last year. I think the Chiefs six year streak of winning the AFC West comes to an end in 2022.

Las Vegas Raiders

2021 Record 10-7

Odds to win division +650

A late season surge last year after Jon Gruden got canned earned the Raiders a playoff birth in 2021. Somehow, new coach Josh McDaniel and the team have gotten better this offseason and feels like they will be in a worse spot overall in the AFC.

Davante Adams comes over from Green Bay to reunite with his former college quarterback Derek Carr. Hunter Renfrow will be a very solid WR2 and Darren Waller will still be a matchup nightmare at tight end. The offensive line, however, needs a ton of work. It will be one of the worst in the league and if they can’t protect Carr, the highly rated wide receiving core won’t be able to maximize it’s potential. Josh Jacobs looks to be joining a running back committee with Ameer Abdullah and Zamir White. If the offensive line was just serviceable, I would be all over this Raiders offense. 

The Raiders lose star player Yannick Ngakoue but replaced him with Chandler Jones,pairing him with Maxx Crosby. In return for the Yannick trade, they got Rock Ya Sin from Indy to help replace Casey Hayward on the back end.

Overall, the new regime has a nice start overhauling the previous Jon Gruden mess but still has holes to fill. The offense should be a good one if the offensive line can just hold up. The defense will be servicable once again. The problem is that they not only play in the tougher conference, they also play in the toughest division in football. The Chargers and Broncos got better this offseason and the Chiefs are the Chiefs. It’s hard to put them ahead of the other three teams in the division right now, especially since they have one of the toughest schedules in the league this year. 

Los Angeles Chargers

2021 Record 9-8

Odds to win division +220

Once again just like every year, the Chargers are the sexy team of the offseason. This year, it is rightfully so. 

You can’t talk about the Chargers without talking about Justin Herbert. He is alreadyy regarded as one of the best quarterbacks in the league going into his third season. Mike Williams showed his potential the first half of last year as one of the better receivers in the league before getting injured. Keenan Allen is one of the best route runners in the league but has gotten another year older and his numbers have declined the last few years. One interestesing weapon for the Chargers is receiver Josh Palmer. A second year player who could make an impact. It still looks like Austin Ekeler will get a full workload with the other running backs not making the leap. Rookie Isaiah Spiller is injured and the duo of Josh Kelley and Larry Roundtree have not been impressive. Gerald Everett is the new weapon aquired in the offseason and will be an upgrade over Jared Cook. LA had one of the better offenses last year, led by Herbert and head coach Brandon Stanley’s overaggresive style of going for it on fourth down. I expect another good year on the offense. 

The defense was an achilles heel for the Chargers as defending the run was a big problem last season. This offseason, they fixed it in a big way by signing all sorts of big names to the defense. They add Khalil Mack to the defensive line that already has Joey Bosa on it. They also added Sebastian Joseph-Day and Austin Johnson to try and fix the run defense. The secondary got better by getting JC Jackson from New England to pair with up and comer Asante Samuel Jr. They also extended one of the best safeties in football in Derwin James. The defense on paper looks legit. Whether that transfers to the playing field will remain to be seen but there is reason to be high on them. 

It seems like we do this with the Chargers every year whether they are in San Diego or LA. This year, it does feel like a big step up from last year with all of the talent. Across the board, you could make the case that they are the most talented team in the division and in the league. We will see if that results in becoming AFC West champs for the first time since 2009. We saw what Joe Burrow did last year in his first postseason. I wouldn’t hold Justin Herberts lack of experience in the playoffs against the Chargers to make a run this season. I’m having a hard time choosing them to be the winner or the runner up but either way, they will be right in the running for the AFC West and will be picked by many to win the Super Bowl. 

Denver Broncos

2021 Record 7-10

Odds to win division +260

This roster was a quarterback away last year from being a contender and this year they finally got their franchise quarterback. Lets ride.

Russell Wilson comes over from Seattle and walks into a loaded offense that was held back by Teddy Bridgewater and Drew Lock(yuck). Not only does he get a loaded offense to work with, he gets competent offensive minds who will work to his strengths. Nathaniel Hackett is the new head coach coming from Green Bay. The same guy who helped Aaron Rodgers get back to back MVP’s the last two season. Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, KJ Hamler, and Albert Okwuegbunam are the new toys that Russ gets to cook with. The talk of the fantasy football world is the emergence of second year running back Javonte Williams. He should be able to feast and has Melvin Gordon as a solid backup who looked good last year. The offense should cook with plenty of gas now that Russ is in a spot where coaches will let him do his thing. 

The Broncos defense ranked third overall last year under Vic Fangio. Even though he is gone, they should still be a good unit and will benefit from a much better offense. Randy Gregory is a big pick up coming from Dallas to help the pass rush. Patrick Surtain is a lock down corner and Justin Simmons is a top safety in the league. As much as there is to like on the offensive side, there are some pieces to love on the defense as well. 

Even though they play the AFC West, Denver benefits from playing a middle of the pack strength of schedule compared to Las Vegas and Kansas City who will have top five hardest schedules this year. I’m not sure if you can call them a sleeper but they are my most improved team this season. I am a big fan and expect a huge year for the Broncos. They should push Kansas City and Los Angeles for the division and are a very underrated Super Bowl contender. 

Division Winner: Los Angeles Chargers

Denver Broncos

Kansas City Chiefs

Las Vegas Raiders