After seven long months, the NFL is finally back. Week one of the season has always been full of surprises in the past. Last year, New Orleans destroyed Green Bay 38-3. In 2020, the Jaguars beat the Colts in a huge upset and didn’t win a game the rest of the year. People will be ready to blow their entire bankroll on an 8 team parlay including the heavy favorites but I just want to say, be cautious. There is a number of divisional games which can always go either way, no matter how good or bad the teams are. If you are going to bet on an underdog, week one is the perfect time to capitalize on it while everyone still has a fighting chance. I’ve get predictions for every game on the slate including a few bets I will be taking and willing to share. I want to preface this by saying I am not a betting expert. These bets are just my choice to win/lose some money and if you want to follow along or tell me how big of an idiot I am, by all means do so.  

Lets get into it! 

Thursday, September 8th

Buffalo Bills(-2) @ Los Angeles Rams

The defending champs host the favorite to win this year’s Super Bowl. Buffalo has loaded up to try and finally get over the hump. While the Rams have lost some pieces, they have added in free agency to retool and go on another run. Both offenses should be able to go off, especially through the air. It remains to be seen with how Cam Akers returns but it is fair to say that the run game isn’t a strong suit for either team. Buffalo’s secondary will be short handed, leaving Cooper Kupp and new receiver Allen Robinson being able to exploit coverage if Von Miller doesn’t get through. On the other side, the Bills have the most explosive offense in the NFL. Josh Allen could take off to avoid pressure from Aaron Donald and outside of Jalen Ramsey, the rest of the wide receivers for the Bills should be able to handle business. I don’t expect Ramsey to be locked onto any one receiver for Buffalo, so expect good days from both Davis and Diggs. I’ve got Buffalo winning a close one. 

Bills 35 Rams 31

Sunday, September 11th

Indianapolis Colts(-7) @ Houston Texans 

The Colts haven’t won a week one matchup since 2014 and look to change that Sunday against divisional rival Houston. Matt Ryan is quarterback number five for Frank Reich’s offense going up against one of the worst defenses in the league last year. Reich’s teams have come out of the gate struggling since taking over in Indy and it’s safe to think its possible again with new pieces on offense. The attention will be on Jonathan Taylor but expect Michael Pittman to have a huge year as well and that could start this weekend for Indy. 

Davis Mills looked competent at quarterback to end the 2021 season. The duo of Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins isn’t threatening by any means but they should be able to move the ball some. Linebacker Shaquille Leonard still isn’t guaranteed to play Sunday for Indy and under a new regime with Gus Bradley, could be a big factor. Dameon Pierce has gotten a lot of buzz at running back but the Colts have done very well stopping the run in the past.

The Colts should snap their eight year losing streak here but with how things have gone the last few years, I am hesitant to put a stamp on it. 

Colts 31 Texans 17

San Francisco 49ers(-7) @ Chicago Bears

New quarterback Trey Lance gets his first official start as the 49ers QB1 and has a juicy matchup against one of the worst teams in the NFL. Whether he is an accurate passer or not will remain to be seen but the opportunity for him to run wild against one of the worst defenses in the NFL will be on display Sunday. Everyone will be looking at Deebo Samuel as the number one wide receiver but Brandon Aiyuk could benefit from the deep ball that Trey Lance excels at. 

Justin Fields will have his hands full behind the worst offensive line in the league. Bears fifth round rookie left tackle will get his first start against…Nick Bosa. Ouch. Thoughts and prayers go out to Braxton Jones against Bosa on Sunday. Outside of Darnell Mooney and Cole Kmet, it’s hard to see much come from the offense in Chicago. 

This has a 49ers blowout written all over it. 

49ers 31 Bears 13

*San Francisco -7*

Baltimore Ravens(-7) @ New York Jets

Lamar Jackson returns from injury and into a prime spot against one of the worst run defenses in football last year. With the lack of healthy running backs and the loss of Hollywood Brown, it could end up being Lamar running wild. For the Jets, Joe Flacco will get the start since Zach Wilson is still injured. The Ravens were decimated by injuries last year and look to be returning not only healthy, but going back to their run heavy style. Mark Andrews is the beneficiary as a pass catcher with second year player Rashod Bateman hoping to fill Brown’s role. Baltimore has won every season opener since 2018 by blowout. John Harbaugh should have the Ravens ready to roll Sunday and could add another week one blowout coming to New York. 

Ravens win by a ton by behind Lamar Jackson on the ground.

Baltimore 33 Jets 14

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals(-6.5)

The biggest divisional game of the week should be a good one. The defending AFC Champs host the new look Steelers behind Mitch Trubisky. Cincinnati will be trotting out their new look offensive line against one of the better defensive lines in football led by TJ Watt. It’s hard to tell what to expect on offense from Matt Canada but it is still expected to be ran through Najee Harris. The Bengals return most of their starters and are primed for another big run in 2022. The Steelers are vulnerable on the offensive line but Trubisky won’t be a sitting duck in the pocket like Big Ben was last year. The Bengals went 2-0 last year against Pittsburgh with two big games from Joe Mixon. Behind the revamped offensive line, Mixon could be in for a big day on the ground. 

These big divisional games are always close and there is plenty of bad blood between these two teams. Cincinnati pulls away late in a game that is closer than people think. 

Bengals 34 Steelers 24

Cleveland Browns @ Carolina Panthers(-1.5)

Baker Mayfield returns to Cleveland to go up against journeyman Jacoby Brissett. It’s fair to say that the Panthers offense on paper looks a little better than Cleveland does. Christian McCaffrey returns and has been told by coaches he will return to his normal workload, which is a big one. DJ Moore might be playing with the best quarterback of his career. For Cleveland, Brissett has not been very good. He favors tight ends heavily so expect David Njoku to be targeted early and often. Amari Cooper is the new weapon for the Browns but it is hard to think that Brissett could support multiple receivers. The offense will be ran through Nick Chubb until Watson returns but Carolina is no slouch on defense. I don’t love either team here but Carolina looks a little more appealing with Baker and CMC than the Browns do with Brissett and Chubb. 

It’s a coinflip but I will take Carolina in a close one. 

Panthers 20 Browns 17

New Orleans Saints(-5.5) @ Atlanta Falcons

New Orleans returns with a healthy Jameis Winston and a new set of weapons. Meanwhile, Atlanta is on track to put one of the worst rosters in the NFL on the field. Divisional games can always be tricky but on paper, there is no reason why New Orleans doesn’t dominate on Sunday. Michael Thomas returns along with bringing in rookie Chris Olave and Jarvis Landry as upgraded weapons for Jameis against a bad Atlanta defense outside of stud AJ Terrell. Alvin Kamara is still around for the time being with his criminal charges pending and should see a heavy workload. For the Falcons, it will be the Kyle Pitts show. Saints lockdown corner Marshon Lattimore will more than likely be locked onto rookie Drake London(if he plays), which will lead to Kyle Pitts being moved around to get open. It’s hard to see Atlanta being able to keep up offensively. New Orleans handles business on the road.

Saints win 31-17

Philadelphia Eagles(-4) @ Detroit Lions

Two teams whose stock has risen this offseason in a big way. The Eagles look primed for a playoff run and the Lions(with the help of Hard Knocks) looks to be on the rise. The jury is still out of Jalen Hurts is an efficient NFL quarterback with his arm. The Lions defense last year was putrid and could end up getting abused by Hurts and his new weapon AJ Brown. The Lions offense has turned into one of the most underrated in the league. A top five offensive line and weapons like D’Andre Swift, TJ Hockenson, and Amon Ra St. Brown should keep Detroit afloat. I see this being closer than people think and I am locking in the Lions +4 because of it.

Philadelphia 28 Detroit 27

*Lions +4*

New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins(-3.5)

Miami looks to keep its three game win streak against New England in hand Sunday as the Patriots roll into town. New England’s offseason has looked like a mess. A roster that keeps getting worse and new co-offensive coordinators haven’t made things look any better with Joe Judge and Matt Patricia. Miami on the other hand, look to be one of the up and comers with a rebuilt offense and a stout defense. Bill Belichick has had trouble playing at Miami in the past and Tua has never lost to BB so far in his career.. As always, I expect BB to take out the main weapon in Tyreek Hill, leaving Jaylen Waddle and the run game for the Dolphins to benefit. Once again, divisional games are risky but I like Miami here even with a new head coach. There is nothing scary about New England anymore and the Dolphins offense should be electric this year.

Miami 30 Patriots 17

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Washington Commanders(-2.5)

Carson Wentz sees the team that kicked him out of playoff contention last year in Jacksonville. The Jaguars should look much more competent this year under Doug Pederson compared to last year with Urban Meyer. Trevor Lawrence should bounce back and benefit with new weapons in Travis Ettiene finally being available and Christian Kirk at wide receiver. Carson Wentz has some players around him you never know what you will get with him. Washington has a better roster overall but with Wentz at the helm and all the turmoil around the Commanders, my lean is taking the dog and picking Jacksonville in an upset. I believe Lawrence will be much improved in 2022 and that will show on Sunday. 

Jaguars 23 Washington 21

New York Giants @ Tennessee Titans(-5.5)

A game with two teams that have more questions than answers surrounding them. The Titans will get back Derrick Henry from injury but have lost AJ Brown to the Eagles and are putting a bottom tier offensive line on the field. Robert Woods is the new addition but is coming off a torn ACL and rookie Treylon Burkes has had a lot of questions around him this offseason. The Giants will be improved offensively with Brian Daboll at the helm but Daniel Jones being turnover prone and the lack of weapons makes things difficult to predict. Kadarius Toney has been battling hamstring injuries and the rest of the wide receivers are questionable to play. I expect the Titans to run Derrick Henry early and often but if the Giants stop the run, can Tannehill capitalize with two new receivers? This game looks to be an ugly one. I want to take New York in the upset but I just can’t pull the trigger. Tennesse in a close one. 

Titans 24 Giants 20

Kansas City Chiefs(-6) @ Arizona Cardinals

This game projects the highest total on the entire slate. Two offenses will show some new weapons on Sunday. Kyler Murray will be playing with his college teammate Hollywood Brown and should be able to capitalize on a weak Chiefs secondary. Meanwhile, Patrick Mahomes and his new weapons of JuJu and MVS should be able to do the same. The Chiefs come into the game with one of the best offensive lines in football. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have one of the worst. De’Andre Hopkins is suspended six games so Rondale Moore and AJ Green will be behind Hollywood. I expect a bigger role for Rondale Moore this season and Zach Ertz to be efficient as well. Even if Kansas City lost Tyreek Hill, Mahomes and Andy Reid will find a way to make the offense work. The running back room looks iffy at best outside of Clyde Edwards Helair so as always, expect a lot of Travis Kelce on Sunday. The offense should be good for Arizona but I just don’t believe in Kyler Murray and Kliff Kingsbury beating Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid. Chiefs win a shootout in the desert.

Chiefs 41 Cardinals 31

Green Bay Packers(-1.5) @ Minnesota Vikings

Minnesota opens its season at home against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. The story will be how the offense will look without Davante Adams. I expect a more run heavy approach with 1A Aaron Jones and 1B AJ Dillon. Allen Lazard is questionable to play, leaving Sammy Watkins and two rookie wide receivers in Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson for Aaron Rodgers to work with. The Vikings are implementing a new offense under head coach and Kevin O’Connell and look for Kirk Cousins to be more pass happy. The Packers defense beefed up this offseason but will have its hands full with Justin Jefferson. Minnesota fixed some issues on defense and now how 1st or 2nd round picks across the entire offensive line. Minnesota looks to improve from their abysmal record in one score games from last year. Week one of last year, the Packers got blown out by the Saints and went on to be 13-4. If Lazard ends up being out Sunday, I smell an upset brewing. 

It’s week one and a divisional matchup, why not do it. Vikings pull out the upset.

Vikings 27 Packers 24

Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers(-3.5)

Justin Herbert has torched the Raiders in his short career with 10 touchdowns to only one interception to date. The Raiders come in with a new weapon in Davante Adams to pair with Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow. The Chargers have a great matchup on paper with Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa going up against one of the worst offensive lines in football for the Raiders. Even with all the weapons they have, if Derek Carr doesn’t have time, it doesn’t matter who he is throwing to. JC Jackson will be out for week one so it could give an opportunity for one of the Raiders receivers to capitalize. The one thing about the Chargers is that at any point team, they can go into full Charger choke mode. That won’t be in the excel spreadsheets but everyone knows what I’m talking about. They can choke and underachieve at any given moment. I will lean Chargers here, even though it could end up feeling like a road game for them in LA. Too talented all around and the defense should make it a rough day for Derek Carr.  

Chargers 31 Raiders 27

Tampa Bay Buccaneers(-2.5) @ Dallas Cowboys

These two teams kicked off the season last year where Tampa squeaked out a 31-29 victory. Tom Brady returns from a quick retirement but the weapons he had last year will look a bit different this season. Mike Evans is the mainstay but Julio Jones and Russell Gage are the new toys alongside him until Chris Godwin returns from injury. Both teams have been decimated on the offensive lines and that could be a weak point for the Bucs and Cowboys this season.. CeeDee Lamb and Dalton Schultz are the two big pass catches for Dak Prescott but look for new head coach of the Bucs Todd Bowles to send pressure early and often. Ezekiel Elliot and Tony Pollard will both have roles but the Bucs did will stopping the run last year. Both teams have regressed some coming into 2022 but the Bucs look like the less injured team here. The Cowboys should regress on defense and still have a big problem being the most penalized team in the league. That and the fact Mike McCarthy still sucks as a head coach. Tampa wins on the road. 

Buccaneers 31 Cowboys 24

*Tampa Bay ML*

Monday, September 12th

Denver Broncos(-6.5) @ Seattle Seahawks

Russell Wilson returns to Seattle week one after departing this offseason. He comes with a loaded offense to go up against a bad Seahawks team that should end up one of the worst in football. It looks like Geno Smith will get the start for Seattle, who will run the ball plenty and keep it out of Smith’s hands. The Broncos are loaded on offense and should tear apart Seattle on the ground and through the air. It will be interesting to see how head coach Nathaniel Hackett goes about his new offense. Does he go run heavy like he did in Green Bay or does he let Russ cook like people have wanted the last few years? Either way, Denver should have no problem on the road even in a hostile environment. Denver is much more talented on both sides of the ball and should take this one easily in Russel Wilson’s return to Seattle. 

Broncos 35 Seahawks 14

*Broncos -6.5*