Tampa Bay Buccaneers 

2021 Record 13-4

Odds to win division -250

Tom Brady returns for year 23 after a brief retirement this offseason. After how the offseason has went for Tampa, I wonder if TB12 wished that he had stayed retired. The offensive line has taken a nosedive and is in need of some serious help. Pro Bowler Ali Marpet retired and Alex Cappa went to go block for Joe Burrow in Cincinnati. Center Ryan Jenson got hurt this offseason and is expected to miss significant time and possibly the season. Aaron Stinnie, who was competing for starting left guard, just tore his ACL and will be out for the year. Not a great start for a 45 year old quarterback who doesn’t move very quick. Not only does he lose most of his offensive line, he lost some weapons as well. Gronk retired for good it seems. OJ Howard is gone. Antonio Brown left the team midway through a game last year because he is a lunatic and Chris Godwin is coming off a torn ACL. They did sign Russell Gage and Julio Jones but I don’t expect the receiving core to be as dynamic as it was last year. I see a little bit of regression in the offense for Tampa. 

Last year, the Bucs had one of the better defenses in the league but fell off in the second half of the season due to injuries. They were one of the better teams against the run but struggled to defend the pass late in the year due to multiple injuries to the secondary. They lost two big time pass rushers in Ndamukong Suh and Jason Pierre-Paul. They did add Akiem Hicks to help on the defensive line and Logan Ryan in the secondary. 

To add to the chaos, Bruce Arians retired as head coach and gave the reign to Todd Bowles for his second stint in the NFL. The team will still be good but regression will be a real thing on both sides of the football for Tampa. I have a hard time seeing this team winning 13 games again this year but they should be right in the mix to win the NFC South again. I will say that if the offensive line can’t keep Tom Brady upright, this team will be in trouble.

New Orleans Saints

2021 Record 9-8

Odds to win division +310

The Saints start a new era after Sean Payton stepped down this offseason. Dennis Allen, who has been their defensive coordinator since 2015, takes over now as head coach. He was the head coach of the Oakland Raiders for two years between 2012-2014 with an 8-28 record. Since returning to New Orleans in 2015, he has consistently had one of the better defenses in the league and has been notable for giving division rival Tom Brady nightmares any time they play the Buccaneers.

Jameis Winston returns from a torn ACL last year to a new look offense. Michael Thomas is reportedly finally healthy, Jarvis Landry was signed this offseason, and they spent a ton of draft capital to draft Chris Olave in the first round of this years draft. This trio is already better than last years of Marquez Callaway, Tre’Quan Smith, and Deonte Harris. I expect Taysom Hill to move back to his tight end role with usage as a quarterback in red zone and short yardage packages. The one big loss on offense is left tackle Terron Armstead but overall, the offense should be vastly improved from its injury ridden year in 2021.

Defensively, they made a big splash by signing Tyrann Mathieu back home to New Orleans. The defense carried New Orleans to its 9-8 record last year when the offense fell off. I expect this unit to be good again in 2022 and will benefit from a better offense as well.

Losing one of the best head coaches in the league in Sean Payton will hurt but this team has plenty of talent to contend. Even though it is tough to bet against Tom Brady, I would not be surprised at all if the Saints took the division this year. With how many injuries have hit Tampa Bay already, I am very tempted to predict New Orleans winning the division. I'm going to keep them as a very close second for now. Dennis Allen as a defensive coordinator has had Brady’s number in the past and the offense will be vastly improved. Even if they don’t win the division, the Saints should be a playoff team and a contender in the NFC. 

Atlanta Falcons

2021 Record 7-10

Odds to win division +3500

Atlanta has gone into total rebuild mode. They send off Matt Ryan to Indianapolis and start the season with Marcus Mariota and rookie Desmond Ridder at quarterback. Mariota has prior experience in Arthur Smith’s offensive system from their time in Tennessee. Kyle Pitts goes into his second season and should improve from his whopping one touchdown last year even with a downgrade at quarterback. The Falcons took wide receiver Drake London with their first round pick which was must needed. Outside of him and Kyle Pitts, there isn’t much weaponry unless you are a believer in Cordarrelle Patterson. 

On defense, AJ Terrell is quietly one of the best cornerbacks in the league. Outside of him…this defense is rough across the board. A bottom five defense last year and I don’t see much improvement coming this year either. 

Atlanta will more than likely end up a bottom five team this year as apart of their complete rebuild. There are a few key players like Pitts and Terrell that this team can build around but outside of that, they have a lot of work to do. We will see if Mariota can lead a franchise and if not, we will see how third round Desmond Ridder does.

Carolina Panthers 

2021 Record 5-12

Odds to win division +900

It looks like head coach Matt Rhule will be coaching for his job this year. He fired offensive coordinator Joe Brady and with his job on the line brings in….Ben McAdoo. I can’t say that I am too thrilled with that hire but it could be worse. I am thrilled to see Christian McCaffrey back though and an upgrade at quarterback from Sam Darnold to Baker Mayfield. I expect CMC to go back to his old ways of dominating and I am optimistic for DJ Moore now that he will have a competent quarterback under center. Baker Mayfield is not a top ten quarterback but when he is healthy, he is good enough to keep an offense moving. The offense should be much improved in 2022 with an upgraded offensive line and the new weapons on offense.

They lost cornerback Stephon Gilmore and linebacker Haasan Reddick on defense but they still have playmakers throughout. Last year, rookie Jaycee Horn played well before being injured week three with a foot injury. Brian Burns and Derrick Brown are forces on the defensive line and safety Jeremy Chinn has shown flashes. Carolina has players in each group of their defense with playmaking potential which makes them underrated going into the season.

There is a variety of outcomes for this Panthers squad. If McCaffrey stays healthy and Baker plays well, they could be a borderline playoff team. If CMC gets hurt for a third straight year and Mayfield plays like he did last year, I would bet on Matt Rhule being fired. I don’t see Carolina surpassing New Orleans or Tampa Bay in the division here so they will stay in the middle of the pack. If the NFC in general is as bad as I think it will be, there is a scenario where around .500 will get a team like Carolina into the postseason.

Division Winner: 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

New Orleans Saints

Carolina Panthers

Atlanta Falcons