Before you read this, I want to clarify that this list is of players I am not drafting at their average draft position(ADP). Some guys I am not drafting at all because of preference. Some others I would consider at a certain price but not the price they are currently going at.

Davante Adams

A top three wide receiver the last few years ends up first on the no fly zone. I like Davante as a player a lot but I do not like the WR4 price I have to pay for him. Let me break it down. 

Historically, players who move to new teams generally do not do as well. A few outliers with one big name being Stefon Diggs but most of the time, they don’t extract the same performance as they once did. 

The downgrade at quarterback plus the target competition screams regression. Derek Carr is a good quarterback but he is a downgrade from Aaron Rodgers. In Green Bay, the competition was Allen Lazard and MVS. Fine players but not great. He goes to Las Vegas and will compete for targets with Hunter Renfrow and a top tight end in Darren Waller. It’ll be much harder for him to pay off his first round grade on this alone. Also, the Raiders are projected to have one of the worst offensive lines in the league. That gives Carr less time to find anyone open and could hurt Davante in the process.

My last bit here is his usage in the red zone last year. He had 11 touchdowns last year. When it was goal to go for Green Bay, Aaron Rodgers chose to throw the ball more often than running it in with Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon. He often went out of his way to feed Adams touchdowns. It’s hard to see Derek Carr doing that behind a worse offensive line along with all of the other targets who could get fed.

It’s not that Davante Adams will lose you your fantasy league but it is a steep price to pay for a guy who will have a harder time producing the same amount he did last year. If he falls in your draft? Go get him absolutely. The risk in his price just has me going elsewhere in the first round.

Derrick Henry

The current RB4 overall comes off a foot injury that took away the second half of his season. We saw how bad the Titans were without Derrick Henry last year as they ended up being one of the worst teams in the league the second half of the season. They traded away AJ Brown and in return have Robert Woods and rookie Treylon Burkes. For Henry to pay off, he is going to have to be a workhorse once again behind an offensive line that has gotten worse. He doesn't have the receiving upside like other running backs do and the only way he is going to pay off is just another massive volume year. Another year older in running back years and coming off an injury, I just don't want any part of it. I am not calling for his demise like others were last year but the risk he has just isn't worth it to me this year. I would rather grab a high end WR in the first round or one of the few backs with receiving upside.

Ezekiel Elliott

This shouldn’t be too controversial but he does end up on the no fly zone. Coming off injury and another year older, it is hard to see the true upside in Elliot. The one thing going for anyone drafting him would be volume. He could certainly fall into the end zone for a double digit touchdown year. For me though, I just want no part of it. I see the Cowboys in general regressing. The offense won’t be as explosive, the defense surely can’t reproduce what they did getting turnovers like they did last year, and they will more than likely end up the most penalized team in the league once again. Tony Pollard is a little high to draft for an RB2 but if I had to choose, I would rather wait and draft Pollard. I do think Pollard will have a role with how depleted the Cowboys are when it comes to their weapons. 

DK Metcalf

It is a shame he is on the list because of his talent but the downgrade at quarterback just kills the potential for me. He goes from Russell Wilson to Geno Smith/Drew Lock. That is the equivalent of going from living at the Playboy Mansion to being homeless. Even at the discounted price, I just dont see the upside in him like I do others around his ADP. It also doesn’t help that Pete Carroll is a dinosaur who will want to establish the run being down 45-0. This whole offense is just a no from me dog. I've got no problem fading the entire Seattle offense in general.

Breece Hall

Maybe I am in the minority here but I am just not seeing it. Unless he is catching a ton of passes while the team is trailing, I don’t get why he is going ahead of guys like Elijah Mitchell, Chase Edmonds, and J.K. Dobbins. Rookie running backs are notorious for being late bloomers. Jonathan Taylor and Melvin Gordon come to mind as rookies he didn’t flash right away. The Jets season could be over before it even starts with the injury to Zach Wilson and the first half of the season schedule that is brutal. Maybe down the stretch he can win the starting job and have value then but Hall is just not a guy I am going after. Michael Carter is also still in the room and a good pass catching back. I don’t see the upside as some others do and I'm not paying RB20 price to find out.

Antonio Gibson

The Foreskins going out of their way to get JD McKissic back after he had a deal done with Buffalo was writing on the wall. If it wasn’t that, it should have been them drafting Brian Robinson in the third round of this years draft. If you can’t see that, how about him being demoted to special teams now after fumbling in the first preseason game. The upside isn’t there anymore and it is time to get off the sinking ship. Brian Robinson is a player that might not even be drafting in most home leagues but I want no part of the Washington backfield this season.

Josh Jacobs

He is not considered a top back but for some people, he has been a solid RB2 with a relatively safe floor. Josh McDaniels comes in from New England and has been notorious to align himself with a committee. Kenyan Drake was signed in the offseason(now speculated to be released) and they drafted Zamir White in the fourth round. The Raiders declined his fifth year option this offseason and clearly don’t value him as a stand alone running back with the new regime. Also like I mentioned above, the offensive line for Las Vegas is going to be terrible. RB21 is a bit too steep for me. I would rather have Elijah Mitchell, J.K. Dobbins, and even AJ Dillon in this range.